Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."