An Warning for Keir Starmer from His Own Past: Without Boldness regarding Britain's EU Exit and Europe, His Labour Rivals Will Be.

Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.